Atlantic Canada Weather Blog: Convective Outlook Valid for Today , Tonight and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

Today and tonight: no sig weather in the region.

Thursday: the potential for strong to possibly severe thunderstorms across central and northern NB. Main threat will be strong wind gusts, but brief torrential rain and small hail are also possible.

Convective Discussion

Quite today across the region under the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure. Upstream, a frontal trough currently in the vicinity of the Great Lakes, will eventually make its way into NB on D2. We will see what kind of activity this produces today across portions of ON and QB to get a feel for what kind of day may be in store in our neck of the woods on Thursday. Based on model guidance alone, there is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms for the northern half of NB in the afternoon and evening, with strong wind gusts being the primary threat at this time. Cells should be moving fast enough with little back-building so that locally heavy rainfall amounts won’t be too concerning. Mixed layer CAPE is expected to be around 1000 J/Kg (give or take a little), so some stronger updrafts could produce small hail. Low level moisture should be present during the afternoon, as well as 0-6 km shear increasing during the day to about 40 knots. The instability is nothing to write home about, but enough to support storms. For now, there will be a yellow threat zone on D2 – but based solely on model guidance! The only caveat at play is the smoke aloft. It can sometimes hinder the development of storms, and other times is not a factor.

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today