Atlantic Canada Weather Blog: Convective Outlook Valid for Today, Tonight and Tomorrow

For June 15^th, 2025

Regional Impacts

Today: Some scattered thunderstorms possible in southeast Labrador today, main threat is strong wind gusts. Isolated chance of a thundershower over north-central Newfoundland and west-central New Brunswick this afternoon.

Tonight: No thunderstorms expected.

Tomorrow: No thunderstorms expected.

Tuesday: Slight risk of a thundershower over north-central Newfoundland on Monday afternoon.

Convective Discussion...

A few areas of interest are at play today, with the most prominent being southeast Labrador. Here, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the warm sector this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front moving through the region. Modest mixed-layer CAPE and effective shear will aid in the organization of some of these thunderstorms, however a lack of surface moisture and very dry low-levels will likely keep storms fairly elevated. Strong dynamics over the region may be enough to support an isolated supercell given enough CAPE, though this risk is low. As such, strong winds are the main hazard with these storms, with gusts of 70 to 80 km/h possible. Small hail and some locally heavy downpours are also possible.

In addition, a few isolated thundershowers are possible in west-central New Brunswick and north-central Labrador this afternoon under a diverging 500 mb jet with some embedded pockets of weak vorticity. Low CAPE and minimal shear will keep these storms from becoming organized and are not likely to be very long-lived, however some locally heavy downpours will be possible.

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today