Regional Impacts
Today
NB…Heavy Rain with thunderstorms, low probability of severe thunderstorms.
Elsewhere…Embedded thunderstorms with trough of low pressure, heavy downpours possible.
Tonight
Embedded thunderstorms with trough of low pressure, some lightning.
Tomorrow
NB… Thunderstorms with heavy Rain and strong wind gusts possible.
NS… Isolated thunderstorms with some moderate rain.
Convective Discussion
Most of the Atlantic provinces will remain on the upward side of an slow moving trough of low pressure. Some embedded thunderstorms can be expected with some heavier downpours possible for the eastern half of Nova Scotia this evening. The 500 hPa through will make its way towards northern NB this evening with some upper level cooling and solar insolation expected. This will likely lead to some potential for surface based thunderstorms with mixed layer Capes between 500 and 1000 J/kg. Upper level where is expected to diminish somewhat in the vicinity of the upper trough, somewhat limiting the potential for severe thunderstorms, however torrential rain is still a threat. Severe thunderstorm watches are a possibility, but will largely depend on weather or not there is sufficient solar heating to boost up the surface based Capes.
Tomorrow the thermodynamics are slightly more significant with the probability of severe thunderstorms being slightly higher for New Brunswick.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
Mel Lemmon