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Thursday, June 22, 2023

Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

 

Today: for Labrador, isolated non-severe thunderstorms giving brief downpours with rainfall rates of 10-15mm/h.

 

Tonight: non-severe isolated thunderstorms in Labrador dissipating.

 

Thursday: for Labrador, isolated non-severe thunderstorms activity shifting to southernmost areas. Brief downpours with rainfall rates of 10-15mm/h. For Newfoundland, there is a slight risk of a thunderstorm west of a line from Gander to Terra Nova.

 

Convective Discussion: A strong upper ridge over eastern Canada will provide dry conditions for most of the region, with increasingly warmer temperatures and stable conditions.  A surface front over far northern Quebec stretches southeastward over central Labrador and is the focus for deeper instability today with localised thunderstorms and rainfall in excess of 10 mm. This activity will shift southward Friday reaching areas over higher terrain between the Churchill river valley and the lower Quebec north shore. Forecast guidance is suggesting an area of convergence west of Terra Nova park Friday afternoon with a few TCU potentially evolving into CB’s at the peak of insolation. Elsewhere no thunderstorms are expected.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for today:

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Friday: