Regional Impacts
Labrador: Scattered thundershowers for western and northern regions.
NB: Isolated thundershowers in the northwest.
NL/NS/PEI: None.
Slope waters: Isolated thundershowers.
Convective Discussion
Today: The only area with marginal excitement for a forecaster is western Labrador where there is an approaching deep layer trough from the surface to 500 mb, wind shear in the 40-50 knot range and modest instability. The only caveat would be solar insolation which will be somewhat difficult given the current cloud cover. The Maniwaki TEP profile from 12 UTC is decent for thunderstorms but realistically is too far upstream to give a good indication for western Labrador. Expect some scattered cells embedded along the frontal feature as it approaches this afternoon but non-severe in nature. Some isolated thundershowers are possible in NW NB later today as that aforementioned front approaches the St. Lawrence valley. Lastly high PWATs, Tds and a weak surface trough will give some isolated cells mainly south of the slope waters…some may trickle into the southern marine district later on.
Tonight: Some instability is indicated on guidance in conjunction with a surface trough and falling 500 mb heights in western NB, which may give some isolated thundershowers through the overnight and into Thursday morning. That trough south of the marine district will begin to push northward bringing some scattered thunderstorms tonight and Thursday morning.
Thursday afternoon: Scattered thunderstorms are likely for most of NB and convergence areas across the usual areas in NS as an upper trough of low pressure crosses the MRTMS. Cells will be very slow moving so locally heavy rainfall is possible. Scattered thunderstorms associated with the surface trough for waters south of NS and NL.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm outlook for tonight
Thunderstorm outlook for Thursday
