Regional Impacts
Labrador
Today…Risk of a non-severe thunderstorm over southeastern sections during the afternoon, and late in the day in the west
Sunday…Risk of a non-severe thunderstorm over southernmost sections
NF
Today…Isolated non-severe thunderstorms over central and northeast sections
Sunday…Risk of a non-severe thunderstorm especially over northeast sections
NB
Today…Risk of a non-severe thunderstorm over northern regions, especially the Chaleur region
Sunday…Heavy rain likely from embedded thunderstorms
NS and PEI
Today…none
Sunday…Rain with Isolated embedded thunderstorms
Convective Discussion
The main area of focus this afternoon is over central NF. The convective temperature should be reached fairly early in the period but low level moisture is low and the deep layer shears are too high to produce more widespread / deeper convection. Regardless, conditions will likely produce moderate TCU’s (and even one or two CB’s) with local 5-10 mm and gusts around 50 km/h. For Lab west, there is an approaching surface trough with a large area of cloud is associated with it. Satellite imagery is indicating the presence of embedded convections west of Schefferville (however there is no lightning activity detected). The moisture in the low levels is clearly lacking over YKL-ZUM-YWK but Td’s should increase during the afternoon.. this combined with the long period of early summer surface heating, and the emergence of a low and upper level jet – should provide some support for the development of deeper (moderate) convection ahead of this feature. Having formed in a low moisture environment, rainfall rate potential is 5 mm/h at the most.
A frontal band over New England will shift north on Sunday and spread rain across the Maritimes. Rainfall rates will be enhanced by embedded thunderstorms, especially over NB
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
