*** Updated Thunderstorm Outlook for Tuesday. See image below ***
Regional Impacts
NB NS PEI: none.
NF: Scattered thunderstorms, possibly strong later this afternoon, localized downpours of 15 mm, small hail, and gusty winds near thunderstorms.
Convective Discussion…
The plume of tropical moisture has now moved east of NF. At 500mb, a trough extends from the James Bay region to the Gulf of St. Lawrence, leaving NF in a fairly unstable airmass. Precip. Water calculated from the area soundings are ranging from 30 to 50 mm, except for AYT (55 mm) which has some residual tropical moisture. VIL of the day guidance is showing values of 35-50 kg/m^2 - fairly strong updrafts and large CAPE values are in store in today’s environment which may lead to some small hail.
A 90kt southwesterly upper jet extending from NS to the Avalon will add some dynamic for some stronger surface-based convection over the region. Moderate unidirectional deep layer sheers will also provide an opportunity for some clusters of thunderstorms to semi-organize.
Tomorrow, the environment found over QC/NE US will advance over NB and Lab.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
