Convective Outlook Valid for Today , Tonight and Tomorrow

Regional Impacts…

 

Today

NL: Chance of non-severe thunderstorms.

NB/NS/PEI/Labrador: None.

 

Tonight

NB/NS/PEI/NL/Labrador:  None.

 

Wednesday

NB: Chance of non-severe thunderstorms.

Labrador: Chance of embedded thunderstorms.

NS/PEI/NL: None.

 

Convective Discussion

A trough will track across Newfoundland later today. Isolated thundershowers are possible ahead and near the trough over northeast Newfoundland this afternoon. Limited CAPE will keep anything from getting too organized. On Wednesday, a low pressure system will move into Labrador, with a frontal boundary extending from the low back into the St. Lawrence River Valley. Isolated thundershowers will be possible along this boundary Wednesday afternoon over extreme northwestern New Brunswick. Limited CAPE should keep anything from getting too organized. Over Labrador some embedded thundershowers are expected on Wednesday.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow

Convective Outlook Valid for Today, Tonight and Tomorrow

For June 15^th, 2025

 

Regional Impacts

 

Today: Some scattered thunderstorms possible in southeast Labrador today, main threat is strong wind gusts. Isolated chance of a thundershower over north-central Newfoundland and west-central New Brunswick this afternoon.

 

Tonight: No thunderstorms expected.

 

Tomorrow: No thunderstorms expected.

 

Tuesday: Slight risk of a thundershower over north-central Newfoundland on Monday afternoon.

 

Convective Discussion...

 

A few areas of interest are at play today, with the most prominent being southeast Labrador. Here, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the warm sector this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front moving through the region. Modest mixed-layer CAPE and effective shear will aid in the organization of some of these thunderstorms, however a lack of surface moisture and very dry low-levels will likely keep storms fairly elevated. Strong dynamics over the region may be enough to support an isolated supercell given enough CAPE, though this risk is low. As such, strong winds are the main hazard with these storms, with gusts of 70 to 80 km/h possible. Small hail and some locally heavy downpours are also possible.

 

In addition, a few isolated thundershowers are possible in west-central New Brunswick and north-central Labrador this afternoon under a diverging 500 mb jet with some embedded pockets of weak vorticity. Low CAPE and minimal shear will keep these storms from becoming organized and are not likely to be very long-lived, however some locally heavy downpours will be possible.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Tuesday

 

Forecaster: Copp