Convective Discussion:
Thunderstorms are unlikely over Atlantic Canada today due to very dry conditions and subsidence in the mid levels over the Maritimes and Newfoundland. The subsidence inversion in the 700 to 600 mb layer should suppress any convection exceeding that layer. These conditions are the result of a large surface high over southern areas and an approaching upper level ridge today and tonight. Showers are likely later today over southeastern and central Newfoundland. However, the dry air and subsidence aloft should prevent any TCu’s that form from obtaining sufficient height to become CB’s.
Over Labrador, relatively warm air aloft and cool air in the low levels will give a profile too stable for deep convection. In addition, mid-level cloud and moisture will suppress solar insolation.
Regional Impacts:
Maritimes: none.
Newfoundland: Scattered showers, thundershowers unlikely.
Labrador: none.
Marine areas: none.
