…Correction for the last panel below, it is valid for Monday…
Regional Impacts
Today:
NS: Widespread rain in the east with localised heavier showers with amounts up to 25 mm / isolated thunderstorms
NB: Slight risk of a thunderstorm SE
NL&LAB: Risk of a thunderstorm / widespread rain with embedded heavier showers along the southwest regions with amounts up to 50 mm
Tonight:
NB NS PEI: None
NL&LAB: Slight risk of a thunderstorm south coast
Sunday:
NB NS PEI: None
NL&LAB: Risk of thunderstorms eastern portions of the island
Convective Discussion
An upper low north of Sept-Iles with a trough extending to NB / Gulf of Maine will slowly swing eastward today and tonight, eventually leaving NF coast Monday. At the surface, the low pressure is located NE of Anticosti island with a cold front extending to southern Maine. Elevated moisture content continues to be supplied in the warm sector by a 40kt southerly LLJ, precipitable water values in the axis Sable-Cabot Strait-NF west coast are exceeding 45mm. YJT tephi from this morning indicates enough instability to support ACC/ACB with tops between 7-8 km. Over the Maritimes the airmass is beginning to dry but the instability and humidity is just enough to support one or two surface-based CB’s, based on the Shearwater modified tephi (24,18) Cape values could reach 300-400 J/kg LI -2 accompanied by strong deep layer shear 0f 30-40kt. A cyclonic 90kt upper jet stretching from southern NE to NF would also provide some extra forcing over NS.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Monday
