Regional Impacts
NB: Isolated non-severe thunderstorms possible over the northern half of NB this afternoon, rainfall up to 10 mm.
NS & PEI: A few embedded thunderstorms with locally heavy downpours of 15 mm, possibly up to 30 mm over eastern NS.
NL: Isolated thunderstorms over southeastern Labrador, and Northern peninsula, and possibly over central portions of the island, rainfall up to 10 mm.
Convective Discussion…
Warm and humid air mass prevails throughout the region, with the exception of Labrador where dewpoint temperatures are less than 15. The main area of interest today is along a 30kt southwesterly LLJ which is pumping moisture into an axis running from south of Halifax through eastern regions of mainland NS, and then to the northeastward to the Northern peninsula of NF. A deep instability layer above 850mb with tops extending to 9-10 km is analysed on the Shearwater sounding, generally MUCAPE values range from 500-1000J/kg. The LLJ and the presence of areas of vertical velocities at 700mb will likely enhance rainfall processes over the previously mentioned area today. A 75kt southwesterly upper jet also will also support some of the convective cells that forms. Over southern NB and western-most regions of NS, warming is expected in the mid-levels today which will prevent low level instability from extending vertically.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
