Convective Discussion
Convective activity is expected to be confined to the southern Maritimes and southern Newfoundland today. Elsewhere the passage of a cold front mitigates convection for today. The primary threat zone is Nova Scotia from Halifax east. Heavy downpours of rain are the most likely impact. However, strong wind gusts less than 90 km/h and small hail are also possible.
Another area to watch is southern Newfoundland where heavy rain is a concern. There is an area of heavy rain and t-shwrs offshore heading toward the Avalon and Burin Peninsulas that will arrive early this afternoon. Heavy showers and tshwrs will persist into the evening.
Technical Discussion
There is an approaching mid level trough and associated cooling aloft that will destabilize the column this afternoon and this evening over the threat area. There is 30 knots of unidirectional shear over the threat area. The 250 mb winds are around 50 knots over the threat area. CAPEs are in the 600-900J/kg range once initiation occurs.
Regional Impacts.
Srn NS and srn NB.
Hatt