Regional Impacts
Labrador… Risk of thunderstorms with downpours and small hail possible, today and tomorrow.
Newfoundland… Risk of elevated thunderstorms tomorrow with some heavier downpours.
PEI, NS… No Risk of thunderstorms.
New Brunswick… Risk of thunderstorms northwest tomorrow.
Convective Discussion
A surface trough will continue to move across Labrador today shifting slightly farther east tomorrow, with moderate instability developing during the afternoon. CAPE values are forecast to be in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, while strong low-level winds will provide support for organized convection where thunderstorms are able to develop.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the trough this afternoon and this evening. Rainfall rates could reach 15 to 20 mm/h, although the progressive nature of the storms should limit the duration of heavy rainfall at any one location.
While severe weather is not anticipated, some storms may become organized into short line segments or a convective complex. Should this occur, locally heavier rain and some gustier winds are possible.
Across eastern Newfoundland, a low-pressure system tracking near the Avalon Peninsula will provide additional lift and support for elevated convection. While surface-based instability is expected to remain limited, elevated thunderstorms may develop within the broader area of precipitation associated with the system. The strongest thunderstorms over eastern Newfoundland will be capable of producing brief periods of heavy rain, with rainfall rates of 15 to 25 mm/h possible.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
Mel Lemmon