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Tuesday, August 17, 2021

Convective Outlook Valid for August 17th and 18th

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1

 

Regional Impacts - None

 

Convective Discussion

High pressure continues to dominate much of the area today bringing unfavourable conditions for thunderstorm formation.

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2

Regional Impacts – Risk of thundershowers for New Brunswick, western PEI and interior Labrador.  Local heavy showers of up to 10 mm possible.

 

Convective Discussion

As the high pressure begins to move away, conditions become a bit better for thunderstorm activity.  Higher moisture levels begin to move into New Brunswick and the atmosphere becomes a bit more unstable as a jet stream tracks into the area.  CAPE values of 500 J/kg are currently expected.  Wind shear values are low at around 25kts so long lived storms are not currently expected.  Local heavy showers of up to 10 mm is possible for parts of  New Brunswick.  Risk of non severe thundershowers as well for interior Labrador.