Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Regional Impacts
Labrador.. numerous strong thunderstorms expected with downpours giving rainfall rates of 20+ mm/h, wind gusts 70 to 90 km/h, and hail. Some of the storms could reach severe limits and a watch has been issued for the Churchill Valley, including the Churchill Falls townsite.
NB.. Strong thunderstorms producing downpours giving rainfall rates of 10-20 mm/hr, gusts 60-80 km/h.
NF.. risk of a non-severe thunderstorm over western sections
NS and PEI.. risk of a non-severe thunderstorm
Convective Discussion
A surface cold front over the St. Lawrence Valley will move across Labrador and New Brunswick this afternoon. This feature is the focus for convective activity today. Thunderstorms have already been reported in western Labrador, and the expectation is for the storms to become numerous during the afternoon. The left exit of an approaching cyclonic upper jet will support the potential for severe thunderstorms over central Labrador. Also, in the warm sector the regional model is indicating the presence of a curved, but generally longer-live cells will likely form into organized clusters/lines. Over NB where midlevel support is not as solid, MLCAPE of ~1000 J/kg and effective shear of 30-35kt could be enough to support strong thunderstorms with convective wind gusts, there is a slight chance that some of these storms could approach the supercell category.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Wednesday
