Wednesday, August 9, 2023
Recall: Convective Outlook Valid for Today , Tonight and Tomorrow
Convective Outlook Valid for Today , Tonight and Tomorrow
Correction for a typo…
Regional Impacts
Today…
NS, PEI and NB… Thunderstorms giving locally 25mm today. Gusts to 70 km/hr.
Southwest NS… Possibly heavy downpours this afternoon in thunderstorms, 25 to 50mm.
Convective Discussion
There are two main areas of convection today, the first area of thunderstorms is the embedded convective activity with the front that is already over eastern NS. The intensity of the convection has diminished from the overnight period where heavy rain impacted western and central areas and is not expected to re-intensify today. It is however still possible to get some heavier embedded showers and gusts in thunderstorms to 70 km/hr or slightly higher.
A second weak trough currently tracking towards the western NS will be the potential trigger for afternoon thunderstorms. High precipitable water and most unstable CAPE values over 1000 J/kg could bring some potential for heavy downpours. The wind shear will not be significant in terms of prolonged severe thunderstorms but could be sufficient to allow the initiation of back building thunderstorms. Watches are not likely to be required but may be sent out if the potential for heavy rainfall develops.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
Mel Lemmon
Convective Outlook Valid for Today , Tonight and Tomorrow
Regional Impacts
Today…
NS, PEI and NB… Thunderstorms giving locally 25mm today. Gusts to
Southwest NS… Possibly heavy downpours this afternoon in thunderstorms, 25 to 50mm.
Convective Discussion
There are two main areas of convection today, the first area of thunderstorms is the embedded convective activity with the front that is already over eastern NS. The intensity of the convection has diminished from the overnight period where heavy rain impacted western and central areas and is not expected to re-intensify today. It is however still possible to get some heavier embedded showers and gusts in thunderstorms to 70 km/hr or slightly higher.
A second weak trough currently tracking towards the western NS will be the potential trigger for afternoon thunderstorms. High precipitable water and most unstable CAPE values over 1000 J/kg could bring some potential for heavy downpours. The wind shear will not be significant in terms of prolonged severe thunderstorms but could be sufficient to allow the initiation of back building thunderstorms. Watches are not likely to be required but may be sent out if the potential for heavy rainfall develops.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
Mel Lemmon