Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1 – JUNE 28
Regional Impacts
Severe thunderstorms possible over central and southern NB ahead of a trough line in a very hot and humid airmass. Non-severe isolated storms are also possible inland in NS along sea-breeze convergence lines.
Convective Discussion
With 35-40kts of 0-6k shear, sfc based CAPE of 800-1200J/kg and Pwats of 45-55mm, the hazards in NB is heavy rainfall, small hail, and gusty winds. If a few storms can bubble up ahead of the approaching front, then discrete supercells are possible on Monday afternoon. Watches and warnings may be required. This is being monitored closely from the Atlantic Storm Prediction Centre.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2 – JUNE 29
Regional Impacts
Non-severe airmass driven thundershowers are possible over many areas of the Maritimes, and Labrador. The best organized convection will be in eastern NB.
Convective Discussion
Less daytime heating energy is available to work with than on Day 1 but still enough to get 500J/kg in pockets. Single cell storms are expected, with rain and gusty winds.
