Regional Impacts
Today:
NL: Risk of an embedded thundershower.
Maritimes/LAB: None
Tonight:
Slight risk of a thundershower in northwestern New Brunswick.
Tomorrow:
NB: Risk of isolated thunderstorms giving locally heavy downpours and strong wind gusts.
NS: Risk of an isolated thundershower across the spine of the province.
LAB: Risk of isolated thundershowers giving small hail and strong wind gusts.
NL: None
Convective Discussion
A lingering cold front from a low pressure system south of Greenland tracks across Newfoundland while a trough weakens over western Labrador as a ridge sits over the Maritimes. A few lightning strikes were noted in Newfoundland along the front this morning, with the risk continuing into the afternoon.
For the Maritimes today, heat and humidity builds under a ridge, but with sufficient sea breeze convergence, there will be some showers that develop across southern New Brunswick, PEI and the spine and northern Nova Scotia but no thunderstorms are expected with these showers today.
A quick moving short-wave trough will move into Central Quebec tonight and into New Brunswick and Labrador tomorrow. There could be a lingering thunderstorm reach northwestern New Brunswick before the threat diminishes overnight. The threat of showers or thundershowers increases on Tuesday and further on Wednesday as a series of troughs affect the region. MLCAPE values increase to 1000Jkg across New Brunswick and with increasing precipitable water and effective shear increasing to 35kt, there is the possibility of organization into multicells or lines that develop. Over Labrador, the troughing will aid in thundershowers across western Labrador and topographical lift and convergence south and east of Lake Melville could also aid in thundershowers tomorrow. As freezing levels lower across western Labrador, small hail will also be possible.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
Roberta McArthur