Convective Outlook Valid for Today and Tomorrow

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1

 

Regional Impacts

For New Brunswick, scattered thunderstorms over western New Brunswick later this afternoon and into the evening. Some of these storms will likely give Heavy downpours, potential damaging wind gusts around 80 km/h, and localized hail of up to 2cm.

Western Labrador, isolated non-severe thunderstorms this afternoon.

 

Convective Discussion

A large area of Cloud&Rain has affected New Brunswick this morning but it will be shifting eastward out of the region this afternoon. Satellite imagery is showing clearing along the Lower St. Lawrence seaway and Maine during the past 1-2 hours. This bright sunshine will become key for the convective temperatures being reached over NB later on. An advancing upper cold low over western Quebec will help destabilize the environment further -  pushing Mixed layer cape values to a significant 1000 J/kg. Supported by a 30kt SWly LLJ, this very unstable environment will be capable of maintaining multi-cell clusters from Maine to Western NB. Any long-lived cells could produce Very heavy downpours, damaging winds and hail.

 

For Sunday, Isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern Nova Scotia.

 

 

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2

 

Convective Outlook Valid for June 18th and June 19th

Regional Impacts

 

For Western Labrador.. isolated thunderstorms possible later today and this evening with 15 to 20 mm of rain possible, no severe weather expected.

 

Elsewhere.. No Thunderstorms expected today, however severe thunderstorms are possible for New Brunswick tomorrow. See the Day 2 outlook further below.

 

Convective Discussion

 

An upper trough is slowly progressing across Northern Ontario today with favourable conditions for severe weather to the south and east of the track. For today a weak ridge should be sufficient to hold back convection for most of the Atlantic Provinces except for Western Labrador where weaker isolated thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon and evening.  

 

Dynamics are favourable for a broad area with high values of shear moving into New Brunswick tomorrow, supercells with strong wind gusts are possible along with heavy rain. Although there is some uncertainty with the speed of the upper low which may impact the timing and location of severe occurrence.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1

 

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2