Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Regional Impacts
Southern sections of NF.. Slight risk of a thunderstorm with gusts to 70 km/h and a brief shower
Elsewhere, no thunderstorms expected.
Convective Discussion
The 500mb upper low and its associated cold pool are located just off the coast of Labrador this morning and has an extensive area of cloud attached to it. Over NF, the latest soundings indicate fairly unstable conditions in the low levels, and since 12z satellite imagery is showing the development of cumulus clouds throughout the interior. Should the surface temperature reach 22 or 23 degrees it would probably be enough to produce enough surface-based CAPE to build towering cumulus, and even a small cumulonimbus. The window is short since the air mass will begin to warm in the mid-levels later today and become detrimental to deeper vertical development.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2
A very moist air mass originating from the Great Lakes region will produce widespread rain, and some embedded thunderstorms.
A low pressure system will emerge from southern Quebec tonight, and move across Maine/NB on Wednesday, reaching NF late Wednesday. Rainfall amounts of 25 to 50 mm should be widespread, and there is a possibility of more than 50 mm in a swath extending from central NB to the south coast of NF. Isolated embedded thunderstorms are possible in the path of this system.
