Convective Outlook Valid for the Maritimes Tomorrow

Regional Impacts

 

NS/PEI: A risk of thundershowers Tuesday.

NFLD/Labrador: Nil.

New Brunswick:  Isolated to scattered thundershowers tomorrow afternoon.  Potential for downpours and gusty winds.

 

Convective Discussion

 

In New Brunswick a cold front will be crossing the region Tuesday afternoon. ML cape of 500-1000 J/kg is expected and straight line wind shear of 20 to 30 kts.  Dry mid layers will allow for gusty conditions in the afternoon. Precipitable water values will be near 30 mm so rainfall maybe a concern.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1

 

Convective Outlook for Atlantic Canada Valid for Today

Regional Impacts

 

NS/NB/PEI/NFLD: Nil.

Labrador: Isolated to scattered thundershowers this afternoon and evening.  Potential for downpours and gusty winds west.

 

Convective Discussion

 

In Labrador, ML cape is generally low (300-500 J/kg) and the shear is 40 to 50 kts so any storms that develop will be mostly pulse in variety. The low level jet is quite high (50 knots plus) so gusty winds are likely even without any thunderstorms. Dry mid layers will also help with gustiness this afternoon. Precipitable water values are near 35 mm so rainfall maybe a concern but the cells will be moving very fast.

 

Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1

 

 

Convective Outlook for Atlantic Canada Valid for June 6th and June 7th, 2021

Thunderstorm Outlook for Today, Tonight and tomorrow

 

Regional Impacts for today (see below for tomorrow):

 

The trough that produced some thunderstorms over the Maritimes yesterday is now over the southern marine district.  Some higher gusts are possible with these thunderstorms but not likely to exceed 30 kts. 

Very slight chance of thundershowers over southern NB this afternoon with locally heavy showers.

 

Convective Discussion:

Now with the cold front mostly passed for the Atlantic region, conditions are not favourable for thunderstorm development.  The lower levels will realize some instability this afternoon so likely some Cu could develop over southern NB but mid levels are stable so the vertical extent of the Cu will likely be capped.  A sea breeze front could develop over southern NB this afternoon which will act as a kicker for Cu so maybe low chance of isolated TCU could develop along this front which could bring local heavy showers.  The chance of TCU ends this evening as insolation diminishes.

 

 

 

 

 

Convective Outlook For Tomorrow

 

 

 

 

Barrie MacKinnon