Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Regional Impacts:
Isolated thunderstorms are possible over Northwestern NB late in the day. Some of these individual storms could give a very brief shower and gusts around 60 km/h.
Convective Discussion:
An upper trough will approach from the west late in the day and will be the focus for any convective development. Lightning flashes are currently detected on CLDN between Lac Saint-Jean and Chibougamau. This feature will act as a potential trigger over northwestern NB late this afternoon and into this evening. At this time, the airmass over NB is relatively dry in the low and mid levels, however forecast maximum temperature of 22 combined with dewpoint values of 10 or 11 should be enough to kick start convection. The Upstream soundings from this morning indicate surface-based CAPE values between 300-500 J/kg which would be enough to push the CB tops to 7-8 km. Storm motion would be towards the southeast at about 30 km/h.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2
For Wednesday, no thunderstorms expected during daylight hours.