Regional Impacts
Today: Severe thunderstorms are likely in the vicinity of Goose Bay, Labrador. There is the potential of supercells and a history of hail, wind, and rain with this front. Severe thunderstorms are also possible in the far NW corner of NB through the Edmundston valley with the same frontal passage. Gusty winds, hail, and rain are the main hazards here as well. However, some tornadic rotation is possible later this afternoon and early evening.
Tonight: Decaying thunderstorms continue for many areas in NB and Labrador. There will also be offshore convection south of NS and Nfld tonight.
Tomorrow: Risk of isolated non-severe thundershowers across much of NB, parts of western Nfld along the de-stabilized trof. Capping ridge is starting to enter the lower Maritimes – preventing widespread deep convection.
Convective Discussion
A very strong low pressure system anchored over the Kavallik region of northern Quebec is bringing a sweeping front from the Labrador Sea down to the Ohio River Valley. This broad feature is driving deep convection, with enhanced spin out ahead of it. It is has a 3-day history of impactful weather as it tracked thru much of eastern Canada. Cape values in central Lab are near 1500+ today, and Effective Helicity is heightened. Sig tor flags supercell development late day near Goose Bay. Sig tor 2 also flags the same area. NW NB is non-zero as well near 00z tonight. However, there is a CIN factor to contend with. Dewpoints of 20 need to advect further east this afternoon, and there is a lot of other cloud cover in the vicinity. Difficult to get discrete cells without a partial clearing. Svr TS watches are going to be issued for areas directly downstream of this trigger – E. Townships of Quebec, Edmundston, Goose Bay. Dynamics are weaker night 1 and day 2 across the Maritimes, with high heat building into the region for much of the week ahead. Isolated higher based windy storms are forecast for Tuesday.
Thunderstorm Outlook for TODAY
Thunderstorm Outlook for TONIGHT
Thunderstorm Outlook for TOMORROW
Forecaster: TIRONE.