Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Regional Impacts
Labrador.. Isolated thunderstorms potentially producing heavy showers with rainfall rates of 10-20 mm/h, gusts to 70 km/h and small hail.
Central New Brunswick.. slight risk of a thunderstorm
Convective Discussion
The Upper air analysis this morning shows a 500mb low near Lab City and a 130kt southwesterly jet stretching from New England to SE Lab. Lowest temperatures in the 500mb cold pool range from -18 over Lab west to -20 over Ungava Bay. At the surface a frontal boundary extends from NE NB to Anticosti Island to SE Lab. Light shower activity is detected along the frontal boundary at the current time, but latest Satellite imagery is showing cold cloud tops and some heavier radar echoes over the south side of MT Carleton. There are a couple of moisture plumes over the region, one from NS to SE Lab and another from Laurentian Fan to SE NF. Precipitable water drop quickly below 20 mm west of the upper low. Instability will be prevailing over much of Labrador especially along the Churchill valley and around Lake Melville, a second area of instability is evolving over central NB. Initiation will be favored by surface convergence near the front, but also by the cold pool and the presence of positive vorticity over Labrador. Once again today MLCAPE values of 500-750 J/kg.. shear values of 30-40 kt will prolong the life of individual cells that form over Labrador, and with strong upper dynamics some of these storms could become organized in lines which could possibly be bowing. Also, Predicted DCAPE in excess of 600 J/kg around Lake Melville indicates the possibility of strong gusts. The thunderstorms over NB will be pulse type and are not likely to be significant.
A second frontal feature currently east of Sable Island will advance over Banquereau and Laurentian Fan this afternoon, the plume of moisture will propagate towards SE NF tonight bringing a risk of embedded thunderstorm.
Thunderstorm Outlook for tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Saturday
