Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1
Regional Impacts:
Labrador: a chance of thundershowers this afternoon into this evening with gusty winds (weak dry microburst)
Offshore waters south of Nova Scotia and Newfoindland: embedded convection with heavy downpours.
Convective Discussion
A deep cold trough is moving into western Labrador with some associated PVA and a left exit region from the upper jet west of the trough. There’s also a little cold advection. Near the surface there is a capping inversion that will weaken this afternoon. The main limiter here is moisture and CAPE. PWAT is only 15 mm, dew points are pretty low, and if the upper lift is strong enough you might get 200 J/kg. There’s moderate deep layer shear as well. There’s a chance for a weak dry microburst, which will probably be the major impact. Conditions will improve overnight.
For the offshore waters, it’s a continuation of the rationale from yesterday, with an inverted trough as the trigger for a saturated moist adiabatic profile. Shear is moderate near the trough, but mainly less than 35 kts. So mainly rain and some gustry winds.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2
There may be some convection overnight and into Tuesday morning just south of Labrador, but there’s only a slight chance of it reaching towards the Strait.