Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1 - Saturday
Regional Impacts
There is a slight risk of non-severe thunderstorms for northeastern NB, northern PEI, Iles-de-la-Madeleine, and northern Cape Breton.
Isolated thunderstorms are likely over central NF and southeastern Lab.
Convective Discussion
Extensive cloud cover over southern Labrador and much of the Gulf of St. Lawrence due to the presence of a mature surface low pressure system near Blanc Sablon. A couple of cold fronts trailing behind could provide enough lift for convective cloud growth over the Atlantic provinces. For the Maritimes, the convective temperature for this afternoon is about 22 degrees which might be reached in areas of eastern NB where solar insolation will be greater. T/Td of 22/10 will yield CAPE values slightly above 200 J/kg. Similar conditions are expected over central NF with the advancing airmass. While the surface temperature required for initiation is similar, the moisture content of the airmass is higher over NF – this will contribute to somewhat higher energy from the surface and mixed-layer CAPE above 300 J/kg. Brief heavier showers is the main threat.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2 – Sunday
Some lingering daytime instability over parts of NF giving a slight risk of thunderstorm.
