Regional Impacts
Today: risk of a thundershower near the ATL coast of NS as well as portions of NF. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms likely for southeastern LAB giving some gusty winds and possibly small hail. Slight risk of a thunderstorm this afternoon in NB.
Thursday: likely numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms for a good portion of NB giving strong winds, hail and torrential rainfall. Isolated thunderstorms possible for western LAB, the interior of NF and some regions of the MRTMs.
Convective Discussion
Frontal trough crossing eastern NS and NL produced a couple isolated cells early this morning but have since weakened. Given the history there remains a chance of an elevated thundershower or 2 as the trough continues moving eastward. Another weak trough-like feature will likely spark some scattered thunderstorms across southeastern LAB this afternoon that could give some gusty winds, small hail and brief heavy downpours. The other area that could see some lightning is in NB, but I am having trouble finding a trigger. We have the heat and humidity, with good shear but lacking that trigger and instability. So just the slightest risk of a thunderstorm is expected.
Thursday could be active on the desk. A colleague once told me “I never met an upper low I could trust”. And that is what we will have approaching the region from Quebec in the afternoon and evening. All the ingredients will be in play so expect some strong to severe thunderstorms for most of NB. The activity could spill well into the evening hours.
Lastly there once again is no D3 prog sent this morning, but as that upper low/trough continues to dive E/Seward there could be strong to possibly severe thunderstorms for some regions of the MRTMs on Friday. Today’s potential outcome upstream in ON and QC should give an idea of what to expect in NB tomorrow. And what happens tomorrow will give a feel for what to anticipate on Friday. It’s the gift that keeps on giving…
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
Jeremy