Regional Impacts
Today:
NB/NS: Scattered thunderstorms giving heavy rain and brief strong wind gusts.
NL/LAB: None
Tonight
NS/NB/LAB: Isolated thunderstorms giving heavy rain.
NL: None
Tomorrow
NB: Scattered thunderstorms giving heavy rain, strong winds and small hail.
NS/PEI/LAB: Isolated thunderstorms giving heavy rain and strong winds.
NL: None
Convective Discussion
A short-wave trough is advancing into New Brunswick and Nova Scotia today while a ridge of high pressure holds south of the Maritimes and the stalled upper low southeast of Newfoundland is slowly moving further east. Overall instability will increase with daytime heating under a still under rather hot and humid air mass. Some slow-moving thunderstorms have already begun to pop over the higher terrain in New Brunswick this morning with rainfall rates of upwards of 35 mm/h and convection over southern Maine and is moving towards western Nova Scotia. With MCAPE potentially reaching 1500 J/kg, precipitable water near 50 mm and effective shear near 25kt, multicell storms are most likely capable of heavy downpours and brief strong wind gusts. The slow-moving nature of the storms will add to the risk of heavy downpours.
For tomorrow, a mid-level trough moves east from Quebec into New England and New Brunswick with the environment further destabilizing across the Maritimes and western Labrador. A cold front is expected to move from northern Maine into New Brunswick in the afternoon. With effective shear increasing to 30-40kt MLCAPE exceeding 1500 J/kg, there is the potential for more organized convection in the form of bowlines or potential supercells giving small hail, heavy downpours, and strong wind gusts.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
