Regional Impacts
Labrador
Today…Isolated non-severe thunderstorms over southern sections
Monday…Risk of non-severe thunderstorms south of the Churchill river – East to Eagle river – and then Cartwright area
NF
Today…Slight Risk of a non-severe thunderstorm over northeastern sections
Monday…Rain and Isolated embedded thunderstorms over southern sections giving some heavier rain (15-30 mm)
NB
Today…Rain spreading throughout the province with embedded thunderstorms giving higher amounts (30-60 mm through tonight)
Monday…Isolated thunderstorms likely, especially over southern sections
NS and PEI
Today…Rain spreading from west to east and with a few embedded thunderstorms likely giving amounts of 20-40 mm
Monday…Rain with Isolated embedded thunderstorms giving amounts of 10 to 15mm
Convective Discussion
Some weak surface-based instability is expected over southern Labrador today the main forcing is a convergence line between the mid-coast and the southwest corner. The main limiting factor is the lack of moisture near the surface, however Td of 9 or 10 deg and temperatures of 20 to 25 were sufficient to trigger isolated CB’s. Using this combination on the 12z Goose sounding yielded MLCAPE values in excess of 500 J/kg, LI of 0 or -1, and equilibrium levels to almost 20,000 ft
The main threat of severe weather lies west of the region today, between southern QC and NE where a number of upper air soundings revealed curved hodographs this morning. Atlantic provinces will be under the influence of a low pressure system which will travel from the Ottawa valley through the Gulf of St. Lawrence then NF tonight and Monday. Some of the forecast guidance is suggesting rainfall amounts enhanced significantly by embedded convection, generally along the track of the low, amounts of 50 to 75 mm can be expected with hints of 100+ west of the region.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
