Convective Discussion
Technical Discussion
Another day with high potential for severe thunderstorms over New Brunswick. Conditions are even a bit more favourable today then yesterday. An upper level jet over northern New Brunswick will help as a lifting mechanism for tstorm formation. Mid level jet of 35 kts should help tilt updraft and help keep tstorm organized and longer lived. At the low levels, ample and deep moisture will help fuel tstorms and a trough over NB will help kick start and maintain storms. Surface temps in the high 20’s to low thirty will also be a big aid for tstorm formation. Low level helicity values are expected to be good this afternoon with the presence of the trough, so supercell formation over parts of NB are likely.
A line of severe tstorms had already formed this morning over northern NB and currently over the Napadogan to Blackville area giving strong winds, hail and heavy downpours. Expected that tstorms will develop again this afternoon and begin to ease with the setting of the sun tonight. Tornado formation is a probability (but low) over central NB due to the expected formation of supercells.
Regional Impacts
New Brunswick – Severe thunderstorms expected within the orange threat area of the map. These thunderstorms could produce winds gusting up to 100 km/h, nickel sized hail and rainfall amounts of 25 mm/hr. The threat is less over the yellow threat areas but still possible.
Nova Scotia – Lower probability of severe thunderstorms along the valley and stretching out to New Glasgow. Climatologically, tstorm generation over NS is much more difficult.
Labrador – risk of non severe thundershowers over grey threat area.
Newfoundland – None
Barrie MacKinnon