Regional Impacts
Today
NB…thunderstorms likely late this afternoon, beginning over northwestern areas. Small to moderate hails, gusty winds and torrential rain possible.
NS PEI and Labrador…low probability of thunderstorms, likely non severe. Rainfall less than 25mm.
Elsewhere…embedded thundershowers possible.
Tonight
Slight chance of lingering thunderstorms, no significant weather expected.
Tomorrow
NS, NB and PEI… Isolated thunderstorms, some locally heavy downpours possible greater than 25mm.
Convective Discussion
Thunderstorm development with moderately favourable dynamics and instability will come together this afternoon over New Brunswick. Upper dynamics are not overly good with only a very weak upper level jet moving over southern Quebec later today. However significant low level moisture, likely underdone by the models, will aid in the development of thunderstorms this afternoon. Mid level shear is moderate with about 30 knots in the 0-6 km layer. Mixed layer Cape will also be upwards of 1000 J/kg, what is less clear is if mid-level air will dry out this afternoon leading to an increased potential for downdrafts. There is however a strong possibility for torrential downpours and moderate hail with the thunderstorms. This will be a closely monitored situation and Severe Thunderstorm Watches are likely to be issued later today.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
Mel Lemmon