Regional Impacts
Today:
NB: Scattered thunderstorms giving heavy rain, strong winds and small hail.
NS/PEI/LAB: Isolated thunderstorms giving heavy rain and brief strong winds.
NL: None
Tonight
Gulf of St. Lawrence/PEI/LAB: Isolated thunderstorms giving heavy rain.
NS/NB/NL: None
Tomorrow
LAB: Scattered thunderstorms giving heavy rain, small hail and strong wind gusts.
NB: Isolated thunderstorm giving heavy rain.
NS/PEI/NL: None
Convective Discussion
A mid-level trough moves east from Quebec into New England and New Brunswick today. With daytime heating and clearing expected behind the morning convection across New Brunswick along the 850mb thermal ridge, further destabilization is anticipated. A cold front will also move from northern Maine into New Brunswick later in the afternoon. There is increasing ingredients in play over New Brunswick such as increasing effective shear to 30-40kt, MLCAPE possibly reaching 2000 J/kg, and the area being near the left exit region of the 250mb jet. There is the potential for more organized convection mainly in the form of bowlines given strait-line shear, but a possible supercell cannot be ruled out. Storms have the potential to give small hail, very heavy downpours, and strong wind gusts as they track towards the east with a mean flow of 40 km/h. Convection is also expected in western Labrador and northern Nova Scotia influenced by the higher terrain. Thunderstorms may persist into the Gulf of St. Lawrence, PEI and western Labrador tonight as the cold front continues eastward.
For tomorrow, the trough continues across Labrador with the weakening cold front extending southeastward into Newfoundland. There is a risk of a thundershower in northwest New Brunswick ahead of the next short-wave trough tracking across the Great Lakes and reaching New Brunswick by Tuesday morning.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
