Regional Impacts
Today:
NL: Isolated embedded thundershowers possible today giving locally heavy rainfall.
NB: Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening giving some wind gusts, small hail and locally heavy rainfall.
Tonight:
NS: Isolated thundershowers possible overnight tonight and into Wednesday morning giving locally heavy rainfall.
Wednesday:
NS/NB/PEI: Scattered thunderstorms expected in the afternoon giving strong wind gusts, small hail and locally heavy rainfall.
Convective Discussion
A slow moving frontal trough of low pressure will give the risk of an elevated embedded thundershower to most of NL today. In NB, skies are clearing across the western part of the province which will allow for TCUs to develop with isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon. 12Z KCAR tephi shows basically no wind shear (less than 20 knots), but adjusting the surface temp and Td a little gives some MLCAPE of 750 j/kg or so. Pwat is in the 30-35 range or so. Locally torrential downpours, gusty winds and small hail are possible in the stronger cells. Severe storms do not appear likely but will have to keep an eye on rainfall rates through the course of the day.
A weak short wave trough currently upstream over southwestern New England will cross NS tonight and Wednesday morning giving the risk for some thundershowers mainly across the southwestern mainland.
On Wednesday scattered thunderstorms are likely across most of the MRTMs in the vicinity of an upper trough of low pressure.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for tonight and Wednesday morning
Thunderstorm Outlook for Wednesday afternoon
Jeremy