Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1
Regional Impacts
Burin and Avalon Peninsulas of Newfoundland: slight chance of embedded thundershowers, which may give some gusty winds over land.
Maritimes including marine waters: nothing significant expected.
Convective Discussion
Basically the same reasoning as for Sunday. There was some convection well south of Newfoundland last night, but no threat resulted for the island. The low/trough is basically stalled near and south of the Cabot Strait, and will gradually intensify and drift north. CAPE’s are marginal or non-existent with current guidance, but could become strong enough to fire off a cell or two if the models are off a little. If so, it will probably be over eastern Newfoundland in onshore flow, where the shear is weak enough (near 30-35 kts) to allow TCus or CBs to develop. Over western Newfoundland the shears are 65+kts, eliminating the chance for CBs.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2
Burin and Avalon Peninsulas of Newfoundland: slight chance of embedded thundershowers, which may give some gusty winds over land. Barely possible.