Regional Impacts
Today: Organized convection is occurring this morning offshore of Baccaro Pt, NS. Frequent lightning and heavy rainfall are the associated hazards. Pop-up shower risk in extreme western Labrador and northern NB - a few of these could be TCUs tall enough to create a few lightning flashes. No sig rainfall expected here.
Tonight: No thunderstorms forecast under stable conditions.
Thursday: Approaching trof brings risk of discrete cell thunderstorms in NB late day, and embedded thunderstorms across SW NS late day. These storms are not expected to be severe at this time.
Convective Discussion
Morning sounding at YQI remains very saturated at all levels, much like yesterday. But today’s limiting factor is a trigger. There isn’t really a strong forcing to create anything organized other than the shortwave offshore that is causing ongoing convection. TCUs in NB will remain unorganized and not overly tall, if they even develop. Similar setup in Labrador of weak dynamics. Tomorrow brings an approaching trof interaction late day that cools the column aloft after maximum daytime heating and will destabilize the column over the western Maritimes. However, it is fairly skinny cape for the time of year.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
Forecaster: Tirone.