Regional Impacts
NB: Isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening.
NL: Isolated embedded thundershowers possible today.
Convective Discussion
Not a whole lot of forcing to talk about today. There has been an isolated embedded lightning strike or 2 across central NL associated with the weak short wave trough crossing the region this morning. So there could be another flash or 2 but that’s about it. Oddly enough there was organized convection late last night and early this morning up over the Great Northern Peninsula and near the Blanc-Sablon area that was not expected with the workup yesterday…and quite frankly I am still a little miffed on why it happened. That area of activity has since died off.
There is a slight destabilization of the atmosphere today across NB so, as skies clear there should be some isolated CBs develop. The 12Z tephi from YZV supports this notion, and that air mass will be descending southward. However, there remains a lot of smoke aloft so it’s quite difficult to figure out just how that will impact the convection. In any event there is no severe weather expected at today…just some locally heavy downpours and perhaps small hail since FZLVLs will be on the low side.
NS should see some TCU and associated heavy downpours this afternoon. The 12Z soundings out of YQI and YAW really don’t support CBs…but an isolated flash or 2 is not out of the question.
Lastly, towards the end of D2, there could be some isolated cells south of NS that could move over the western mainland but that is solely based on computer guidance and is not to be trusted for the time being.
Thunderstorm Outlook for today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Monday
Jeremy