Convective Discussion
A strong upper level jet stream (150 knots) runs from the Southern Prairies-Northern Ontario-Central Quebec-and then drops southeastward over the Gulf of St. Lawrence and then south of Newfoundland. Cloudy and cool conditions prevail in the airmass northeast of this feature, while hot and humid conditions prevail southwest of it.
This mornings upper-air soundings from CAR GYX and YQI are showing strong capping around 600mb, and a definite lack of forcing mechanism in the upper levels. The hot humid conditions will not be enough to trigger surface-based convection this afternoon. For this evening and overnight, some airmass thunderstorm activity from the lower Great Lakes and Northern New England may reach Maine and spread into western NB.
Regional Impacts
New Brunswick…Risk of a thunderstorm with localized downpours this evening and overnight
PEI and Nova Scotia…None
Newfoundland and Labrador…None
