Regional Impacts
Today
NB/NS/PEI: Risk of showers and thunderstorms across NB in the afternoon into western NS and PEI in the late afternoon/evening giving brief wind gusts and heavy downpours. There is a chance that a cell or two could approach severe limits late this afternoon near Keji National Park and in the Annapolis Valley of Nova Scotia. This convection should be short lived based on the dynamics today. The main hazard is rain.
Labrador: Scattered thunderstorms across the region from early afternoon to the evening giving brief wind gusts, lightning, and small/moderate hail.
NL: None
Tonight
NS: Chance of thunderstorms continues after midnight across eastern sections and over much of the marine district.
Tomorrow
NB/NS/PEI: An inland risk for single cell convection exists tomorrow across much of the Maritimes.
Labrador: The thunderstorm risk has pushed east near Mary’s Harbour, depicted in grey.
NL: Inland thundershowers are possible near Badger, depicted in grey.
Convective Discussion
A tale of 2 trofs today across the Maritimes. As these features advance from the Eastern Townships of Quebec, the atmosphere will destabilize. A jet at 250 of 112kts also sweeps through western NS late this afternoon, coinciding with the advancing thermal trof. This alignment MAY lead to a cell or two approaching severe limits in the small depicted yellow risk area. Dewpoints this morning hover around 12-15 and should maintain today along the warm frontal feature (sfc). The main hazard this afternoon would be rainfall, but also a brief wind gust to near 90km/h. CAPE is limiting however, and a lot of cloud already around – increasing CIN. MUCAPE values only near 500 today. Decaying storms may brush the HRM area late this evening, but not with any of their severe hazards maintained. CAPE is much higher with Eff shear of 30kts in Labrador. Hence the hail risk and more organized chance of discrete cells forming there. Tomorrows convection is forecast to be single cell and not severe. These will be inland airmass thundershowers, very typical to the region in June.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
Forecaster: Tirone.