Regional Impacts…
Today
Labrador: Scattered thunderstorms gusts 50-70 km/h and brief heavy showers 15mm/h.
NB/NS/PEI/NL: None.
Tonight
Labrador: A chance of thunderstorms.
NB/NS/PEI/NL: None.
Tuesday
NB/Labrador: Widespread thunderstorms with some of them becoming strong, rainfall rates 15-25 mm/h, hail possible, and gusts 50-80 km/h.
NS/PEI/NL: None.
Convective Discussion…
The airmass between James Bay and Labrador has become very unstable this morning ahead of an approaching upper level disturbance. At this point, the instability is triggered by 500 dam heights fall amplified by straight sunshine. In terms of dynamic support, A cyclonic jet over the Quebec far north is slowly descending, while a 40kt SWly low-level-jet is pumping moisture and energy into the mix. Surface CAPE values in excess of 1000 J/kg, LI of -4 and (increasing) 0-6 km shears of 25-35kt, will help support long-lived clusters.
Fair weather cumulus along with warm and humid conditions are expected over the rest of the region.
For Tuesday, precipitable water will be on the increase and the upper disturbance and weak cold front will approach from Quebec/Lab and set the stage for the next round of thunderstorms. Current forecast guidance is suggesting the possibility of strong convective features but confidence is only starting to increase. This activity will likely occur during the peak daytime heating period of the day.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
