Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1
Regional Impacts
Scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop this afternoon and into the evening across southern NB and portions of NS as skies partially clear. There is a slight risk for a strong thunderstorm or 2.
Convective Discussion
A frontal trough is currently giving some non-severe thundershower activity to parts of NB and southern marine waters. This will likely weaken soon. Skies are beginning to clear in New England and that trend will progress eastward this afternoon. The dynamics are marginally favourable for isolated strong thunderstorms for portions of NB and NS, with the main threat being strong winds. 12Z tephi analysis supports 500-1000 CAPE with shear approaching 40 knots. While low level moisture is decent there is not an abundant amount of instability in the atmosphere. PWATs are roughly 30 mm from KCAR, YCX and YQI. It is also difficult to pinpoint an upstream surface trough at this point in time. Lastly, there is a large amount of smoke aloft from the ongoing forest fires to the west that could inhibit thunderstorm development. All that being said there will be scattered storms develop this afternoon with a couple of them approaching severe criteria (gusts close to 90 km/h and hail near 2 cm – owing to the somewhat lower freezing levels). Locally heavy downpours are also likely in some cells.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2
