Thunderstorm Outlook valid for JULY 28th:
Regional Impacts
Isolated non-severe thundershowers are possible across portions of NB today as an advancing feature approaches out of the Great Lakes basin.
Convective Discussion
The forcing for the weather today stems back across Ontario and Michigan. A northern branch of a jet streak is pushing into the Montreal area this afternoon, and a southern branch near New York City. Ahead of this system, the atmosphere is slowly destabilizing. Over most of the Maritimes, a weak thermal cap at 700mb still exists, and a significant dry layer from 700-500mb. This is the delineating feature of the day. A low pressure system on the Grand banks continues to produce strong thunderstorms over those marine areas today, near the surface trof. TS risk shifts further east in the overnight hours tonight with showers.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1
Thunderstorm Outlook for Night 1
Thunderstorm Outlook valid for JULY 29th:
Forecast for Friday is widespread showers/fog/drizzle/and risk of TS embedded for NS and PEI along advancing frontal feature. Sfc moisture is expected to converge well ahead of the trof’s arrival. With proper jet support, storms in central NB may become severe. Gusty winds can be expected as the storm mode seems to favour squalls/multi-cell dynamics. However, the catch is that shear may actually be too high. Values near 50kTs could rip storms apart before they can grow to mature heights. This will be monitored extensively in next 24hrs. 0-6k shear values near Montreal at 18z today will be important forecaster information.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2
Forecaster: TIRONE