Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1 – July 20th, 2021
Regional Impacts
Scattered thunderstorms today over NFLD, PEI, NS and southeastern NB with locally heavy showers possible especially over southeastern NB. 10 to 20 mm but higher not out of the question.
Convective Discussion
Dynamics are not great today for severe thunderstorms, however the risk is still there but likely low. There is not much support in the upper level dynamics with no significant jet stream over the area and a lot of moisture at the 700. A lot of smoke and cloud over the area will inhibit solar insolation. Wind shear values of between 20 to 30 kts will likely not be enough to help maintain long lived cells. However, there is a lot of low level moisture over the area and marginally unstable atmosphere ahead of a trough currently located over NB. This trough will track southeastward through the day and will likely kick off some tstorms. These storms have a low chance of becoming severe due to all the inhibiting ingredients mentioned above, however they could still bring down quite a bit of rain due to the abundance of moisture and the fact that the cells will likely be slow moving. 10 to 20 mm expected with higher possible.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2 – July 21st, 2021
