Convective Outlook Valid for June 2nd 2019

Convective discussion

The general picture is for little no impacts for most of the forecast region. Impacts are expected mainly along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia today and tonight, and southern coastal regions of Newfoundland. There is also a risk for Northwest New Brunswick.

There are two main feature. A slow moving low south of Nova Scotia has a warm front extending well  to the east as a triggering feature, along with good moisture advection, precipitable water amounts in the 40 mm range, CAPES probably in the 500-1000 J/kg range, and above the marine inversion winds in the 55 kt range. While there is veering with height in the inversion, this should have little or no effect. The main impacts are rainfall, especially enhanced by topography near landfall, and gusty winds. With freezing levels in the 8000-10000 foot range, there is also a slight possibility for small hail.

For new Brunswick there is a line of weak convection across central main as an organising feature and a trigger. Mositure is relatively low, and the Caribou 12Z tephigram has zero CAPE. However, the  trigger temperature is near today’s daytime high, and CAPES of 300-500 J/kg are possible this afternoon, with shear near 38 kts. Again, the main impacts would be rain followed by gusty winds. With freezing levels in the 8000-10000 foot range, there is also a slight possibility for small hail.

Regional Impacts

Newfoundland: Rain and some gusty winds late today into tonight. A slight chance of hail. Topographic enhancement may give 25 mm/hr especially in the southwest.

Labrador: none

Nova Scotia: Rain and some gusty winds today into tonight. A slight chance of hail. Topographic enhancement may give 25 mm/hr especially in the east.

Prince Edward Island: none.

New Brunswick: Rain and some gusty winds, and a slight chance of hail.

Doug Mercer

Lead Meteorologist

Atlantic Storm Prediction Centre

Meteorological Service of Canada

45 Alderney Drive, Dartmouth

Nova Scotia, B2Y 2N6

Doug.mercer@canada.ca

Office: (902) 426-9200

Premier Météorologue
Centre de prévision des intempéries de la région de l'atlantique

Service météorologique du Canada

45 promenade Alderney, Dartmouth

Nouvelle-Écosse, B2Y 2N6

Doug.mercer@canada.ca

Bureau: (902) 426-9200

Cell: (902) 403-7951