Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1 – Thursday Aug 5
Regional Impacts
Rain at times heavy with embedded thundershowers expected today and tonight over southern NB and western and central NS.
Convective Discussion
Elevated convection with initiation from between 900 and 850 mb is likely today and tonight over these regions. This convection is embedded within a broad area of rain. There is a lot of low level moisture within this airmass to support ongoing isolated embedded thundershowers. The risk in this situation is heavy rainfall, not necessarily directly due to thundershower activity. Strong winds and hail are not a threat.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2 – Friday, Aug 6.
Regional Impacts
Most of New Brunswick and Labrador.
Convective Discussion
Labrador: Low level moisture is sufficient, with model temps being low to mid 20s and dew points around 15. There is cooling aloft, sufficient to give CAPEs around 1000 J/kg. Shear values are near 30 knots. Heavy downpours, small hail and gusty winds are possible.
New Brunswick: Isolated single cell pulse thundershowers are possible. However, there will be cap between 750 and 700 mb that may be difficult to break. Shear is forecast to be low (0-6 km shear only 20 knots.). Brief downpours are possible. No severe convection expected.
