Regional Impacts
Today
NB: slight risk of an embedded non-severe thundershower across northern areas of the province near the Que border.
NS/PEI/NFLD/LAB: None.
Tonight
NS/NB/PEI: embedded elevated non-severe convection is forecast late overnight tonight across the Maritimes, and into early Sunday morning.
NFLD/LAB: None.
Sunday
NB/NS/PEI/NFLD: risk of non-severe embedded thundershower activity continues all day in the broad area of convective showers. There could be a few heavier downpours associated in the Annapolis Valley and Cobequid mountain areas. Late day the shower activity could approach Saint-Pierre and the Burin.
LAB : None.
Convective Discussion
The atmosphere will slowly begin to destabilize above 850mb over the next 12-24hrs. A broad area of low pressure is approaching the Maritimes tonight from the Great Lakes region of Ontario. This will bring a change in airmass and bump up dewpoints significantly from 4 to 18. Accordingly, embedded non-severe thundershowers are being forecast and will slowly traverse the Maritimes (and the marine district) this weekend. The greatest impact is repetitive showers, and lightning. Rainfall amounts will be highly variable across regions. There is a low level jet at 850 out of the WSW that strengthens both in the day Sat and again on Sunday. BUT – effective shear remains low at only 10-20kts. 0-3k shear is better at 30-40kts which just confirmed the nature of these cells being mostly elevated. CAPE for the whole column is 400J at best and very skinny.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tonight
Thunderstorm Outlook for Tomorrow
Forecaster: Tirone.