Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 1
Regional Impacts
Southern Avalon Peninsula and marine waters to the south and southwest: Chance of embedded thundershowers this afternoon into the overnight period. No significant impacts expected.
Convective Discussion
A cold front from a weak low on the Gulf of St. Lawrence will slowly move east today and will then stall south to southwest of Newfoundland on Monday. North of the low and west of the cold front conditions will quickly dry out, and as the ridge to the west moves in convection will be inhibited, with thunderstorms unlikely. Embedded thundershowers near Georges banks will move east over slope waters today, and may approach the Avalon this afternoon and again overnight as the storm stalls and intensifies. CAPE’s are expected to be low, well below 500 J/kg. In addition the deep layer shear will be too strong southwest of Newfoundland, shearing off the cells, but will drop a bit towards the Avalon allowing a chance for some isolated thundershowers and possibly gusty winds over land.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Day 2
Slight chance of embedded thundershowers continuing into Monday for eastern and northern Newfoundland. No significant impacts expected.