Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Regional Impacts:
Chance of Isolated thunderstorms are possible over Northwestern NB late in the day. These thunderstorms could give wind gusts of 70 km/h with possibly higher gusts and heavy showers with 15 to 20 mm possible. These isolated thunderstorms may move across the rest of New Brunswick this evening but with reduced severity.
Slight chance of thunderstorms across parts of NS today and early this evening.
Convective Discussion:
Moderately high low level moisture over the area with some marginal instability and decent wind shear could produce some thunderstorms over northwestern NB later this afternoon. Looking at the 12Z tephis and adjusting for day time heating, moderate cape values of around 500 J/kg could be realised this afternoon. All surrounding sounding are showing a mid level capping inversion which will likely inhibit further growth of CB if any develop…HOWEVER…a strong upper jet and the passing of a warm trough could help erode this capping inversion and destabilize the column which could result in higher CAPE realized and thus thunderstorms with gusts of up to 70 km/h and possibly higher gusts. I am holding off on putting out watches for northwestern NB as I think the chance is low for severe thunderstorm formation as the timing of the trough which will help kick off the potential severe storms is not until this evening past max insolation but of course, I will be watching the situation closely.
