Thunderstorm Outlook for Today
Regional Impacts
New Brunswick: Scattered thunderstorms with brief heavy downpours, Hail of 2 cm, and wind gusts to 80 km/h
Nova Scotia: Numerous Strong thunderstorms with Hail of 2 cm or more, heavy downpours and wind gusts to 90 km/h
PEI: Hail 1 cm or more, heavy downpours and wind gusts 70 km/h or more
Newfoundland: Chance of a thundershower late in the day and tonight in the southwest
Labrador: Turning much colder with brief heavy showers, no thunderstorms expected
Convective Discussion
An upper low over Maine will advance over the Maritimes today and remain in place on Sunday. A cold trough extends southeastward from the low and will be rotating over the region today.. this will be the focus for convective initiation. Strong surface heating over NS-PEI-Ern NB will further contribute in the destabilization of the environment, and modified soundings can easily push mixed layer cape values between 500-1000 J/kg with a temperature/dewpoint combination of 25/15. This very buoyant air mass will produce CB with tops to 7 or 8 km and max overshooting tops to 12 km especially over regions along the Northumberland Strait. The early morning soundings were also indicating deep layer shear strong enough to support multi-cellular clusters with some capable of producing damaging wet macrobursts. The main threat will be large Hail, torrential downpour and damaging winds.
Thunderstorm Outlook for Sunday
Slight risk of a thunderstorm over eastern Maritimes.