Convective Discussion
Slight chance of thundershowers across parts of NB tonight associated with a short wave trough. A slight chance of thundershowers near or along the Atlantic Coast of NS associated with a weak surface trough.
Technical Discussion
The dynamics and thermodynamics around ATL Can are relatively weak today so very little in the way of convection is expected. There is a 500/700 mb trough upstream over the GRTLKS region, but that is not expected to advect into the region later today. A shortwave trough at 500 mb will cross NB tonight which may trigger an isolated thunderstorm or 2. Also, a weak surface trough will cross over NS tonight giving a slight RSK of TSRA. The 12UTC sounding from YJT shows decent LLV moisture and 35 knots or so shear, but also 2 fairly strong capping inversions. Once daytime heating is maxed SCT TCU are likely with just the slightest RSK of a TSRA across CNTRL/ERN NL.
Regional Impacts
New Brunswick and Nova Scotia: slight risk tonight.
Newfoundland: very slight risk this afternoon and evening.
Labrador: nil.
Jeremy