Regional Impacts:
Today
None
Tonight
None
Tuesday:
NB: isolated lightning over northern areas.
Marine: isolated lightning, except scattered lightning with gusts of 70-90 km/h over southern West Scotian Slope and Georges Bank (not shown on outlook).
Convective Discussion:
MLCAPE of 200-300 J/Kg over northern NB is anticipated but no real triggering mechanism exists beyond daytime insolation. Dry air entrainment above 700 mb will also limit lift today making lightning unlikely.
Tomorrow a very similar environment will be in place, however a weak cold front moving southward into northern NB may provide enough lift to cause the odd strike. There is the potential for severe storms in the Southwestern slope waters with MLCAPEs locally exceeding 2000 J/Kg and effective shears of 30-40 knots. Storms will be forced by a shortwave currently located to the east of New Jersey that is anticipated to move near the slope waters by Tuesday evening. The primary hazard with these storms will be strong wind gusts and reduced visibilities in downpours.
Thunderstorm outlook for today:
Thunderstorm outlook for tonight:
Thunderstorm outlook for Tuesday:
